Wages, job data in focus for clues on economy, rates

The latest wage price index is tipped to show a moderation in pay packets in 2023/24. (David Mariuz/AAP PHOTOS)

Fresh wages growth and job market numbers due this week will inform the outlook for the economy and interest rates, amid expectations monetary policy will remain on hold until at least early 2025.

After the Reserve Bank of Australia hosed down the chance of a near-term interest rate cut at its August meeting, attention is turning to any new data that might confirm the economy is tracking in line with the central bank's expectations.

The June quarter wage price index - which indicates the pace of underlying inflation pressures in the labour market - due on Tuesday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is tipped to show a moderation in pay packets in 2023/24.

After rising strongly in the past few years, wage growth has recently started to fall in line with a subdued economy and a gradual weakening in demand for labour.

Financial market economists expect a further softening in the year to the end of June, with ANZ pointing to a rise of four per cent, down from 4.1 per cent in the March quarter.

Construction workers in Sydney
Wages growth and job demand data will play into the outlook for the economy and interest rates.

The central bank's outlook for wages was downgraded in its August economic update to an annualised forecast of 3.6 per cent in the December quarter, from four per cent in the June quarter.

New information on conditions and confidence levels in the private sector are also due on Tuesday when National Australia Bank releases its business survey for July.

An update on consumer confidence is due the same day, when the Westpac-Melbourne Institute monthly survey is released.

And Thursday's official labour force figures for July could show the jobless rate ticking higher again, to 4.2 per cent from 4.1 per cent, according to economists.

A modest 20,000 jobs are likely to have been added to the economy, following a rise of 50,000 in June. 

As well, Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser will deliver a lunch-time speech in Brisbane on Monday which will be scanned for more clues to the economic outlook.

Then on Friday, Mr Hauser will join governor Michele Bullock when she appears before the House economic committee in federal parliament in Canberra.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock exchange should get off to a positive start on Monday after Wall Street edged higher on Friday.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 51.05 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 39,497.54, the S&P 500 gained 24.85 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 5,344.16 and the Nasdaq Composite added 85.28 points, or 0.51 per cent, to 16,745.30.

The Australian futures market is pointing to a 59 point lift in the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index to 7781 points when trading resumes.

On Friday, the local bourse finished up 95.7 points, or 1.25 per cent, to 7,777.7 while the broader All Ordinaries gained 104.2 points, or 1.32 per cent, to 7,990.7.

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store