Election promises by Tasmania's major parties will heap further pain on the state budget which could necessitate increased taxes down the line, a leading economist says.
The island state will vote on Saturday, with polling suggesting the incumbent Liberals will win more seats than Labor but not enough to govern in majority.
Both parties have said they're prepared to govern in minority but have ruled out doing "deals" or compromising on policy with a potential cross bench.
Independent economist Saul Eslake calculated Liberal promises at $1.6 billion over four years and Labor $1.85 billion, saying both would put the state in a worse budget position.
"To a mainlander that might not sound like much ... (but it is) almost a 50 per cent increase in the (cash) deficit," he said.
"To listen to the two major parties ... you wouldnt know that Tasmania has any fiscal problems that might warrant the attention of the next government."
According to revised estimates, released in February shortly after the election was called, Tasmania's 2023/24 deficit is on track to be $521 million - $223 million larger than predicted.
The $61 million surplus predicted for 2026/27 was instead a $52 million deficit, while net debt is tipped to hit $6.1 billion in 2026/27.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Thursday ruled out new taxes, above an already announced plan to put a levy on short-stay accommodation to cover stamp duty help for first home buyers.
He accused Labor of outspending the Liberals three-to-one.
"That's not their money, that’s Tasmanian taxpayer’s money, they're throwing it around like confetti," he said.
"We're about strong fiscal management and returning the budget to surplus."
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, last returned a surplus in 2018/19.
In an eight-page brochure, Labor promised to return the budget to a small surplus by 2027/28.
They costed their new commitments at $1 billion across four years and have included savings, such as $154 million by "replacing failed Liberal policies".
Labor leader Rebecca White said her focus was on lifting participation, partly by providing extra childcare to help 11,000 people back into the workforce.
"When the Liberal government was elected 10 years ago they inherited cash in the bank," she told reporters, saying Labor doesn't support new taxes.
"It's been through their budget mismanagement we've seen a deterioration of the state's finances."
Mr Eslake said Tasmania couldn't afford to carry as much debt as other states because of its comparatively large unfunded public sector superannuation liability estimated to be $7.7 billion in 2027.
"That is something that has to be funded year-by-year in the same way interest on debt does," he said.
"Tasmania is not going to default on its debt.
"(But) at some point, and you can see this is already happening in Victoria where the government is increasing payroll tax and land tax on people in order to reduce its deficit.
"We might have to look at measures like that at some point in the future."
