Rate hike talk ditched as RBA keeps options wide open

The Reserve Bank board did not formally consider changing interest rates at its last meeting. (Bianca De Marchi/AAP PHOTOS)

No formal discussion of an interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia's last meeting firms up the board's shift into a neutral gear.

The decision to leave interest rates untouched at 4.35 per cent was widely expected at the meeting over two days last month.

The minutes, released on Tuesday, supported the view the move was uncontroversial, with no mention of the case to hike further or specific options on the table.

At every other meeting since interest rates started going up in May 2022, the minutes have expressly laid out the policy options under consideration.

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the March meeting write-up confirmed the board was shifting to a more neutral stance on interest rate decisions.

"The March minutes are the most dovish piece of communication from the board since the RBA commenced its tightening cycle in May 2022," he wrote in a note.

The central bank had already done away with explicit warnings of more interest rate hikes and in the minutes reiterated it was "not possible to either rule in or out future changes in the cash rate target".

"We believe the board is reluctant to let on that it views the likely next move in the cash rate as a cut," Mr Aird said.

Yet the economist said the board was likely of the view the next move in the cash rate was down "behind closed doors", with the minutes stressing latest economic data was broadly as expected.

"In finalising the board’s statement, members agreed that it was important to convey that recent data and information had not materially changed their views on the outlook," the statement read.

Members did dissect risks to the outlook, including if inflation stayed high as "productivity growth did not increase sustainably or if services price inflation proved stickier than assumed".

On the other hand, consumers could remain cautious and risk a bigger economic slowdown than expected. 

"In particular, the recovery in real household disposable income growth may not lift consumption growth if households do not respond as expected, perhaps because of a weakening in the labour market," the minutes read.

National Australia Bank head of market economics Tapas Strickland said the RBA had potentially been alert to a weaker-than-expected jobs market from the January jobs data, which had the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 per cent.

Yet since then, the February data came in hotter-than-expected and the jobless rate fell back to 3.7 per cent, with seasonal quirks partly to blame. 

"If the unemployment rate is sustained at lower rates, then it is more likely the RBA would hold rates for longer if inflation is still trending down, rather than genuinely contemplating higher rates given the board assess the stance of policy as 'restrictive'," Mr Stickland said. 

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store