Meeting minutes to show RBA dancing to its own beat

Economists aren't expecting Michele Bullock and the RBA to backflip on their rates stance. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is growing increasingly frustrated with "false prophets" attempting to pre-empt its cash rate strategy, but that won't stop analysts from poring over every word of the board's latest meeting minutes for signs of weakness.

After the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent earlier in August, governor Michele Bullock all but ruled out a rate cut before the end of the year.

The minutes of that board meeting will be released on Tuesday and will provide fodder for those eager to read the monetary tea leaves.

RBA parliamentary hearing
Reserve Bank officials have poured cold water on hopes of an impending rate cut.

Whether they will provide any fresh revelations is debatable, given Ms Bullock and deputy governor Andrew Hauser have both since publicly poured cold water on hopes of an impending rate cut.

"Ultimately, our full employment goal is not served by letting inflation stay above the target indefinitely, so the board will remain focused on the potential upside risks to inflation," Ms Bullock told federal parliament's house economics committee on Friday.

The market is still relatively dovish, pricing in a 25 basis point rate cute by January, despite traders banishing memories of the prior week's wobbles after fears of a US recession eased.

Recent events have not changed Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis's view about the outlook for the Australian economy, but the RBA board's recent remarks could indicate a shift in their thinking.

"While it is still possible that the RBA board will change its mind, RBNZ-style, and pivot sooner than our current base-case expectation, we suspect that fast backflips are not in the RBA’s breakdancing repertoire," she said.

With no substantial domestic data releases other than Westpac's leading index of economic activity on Wednesday, eyes will turn to the US mountain resort town of Jackson Hole.

From Wednesday through Saturday, dozens of central bankers and policymakers will converge on the Jackson Hole symposium, where a speech from Fed chief Jerome Powell may reinforce expectations of a September rate cut.

Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris's appearance at the Democratic convention will be closely watched.

The Democratic convention, starting Monday US time, will also be carefully monitored as Kamala Harris seeks to maintain her momentum in the presidential race.

"Markets will be attentive to potential policies, given Harris remains an unknown entity," NAB head of market economics Tapas Strickland said.

Domestic and US equities markets will look to consolidate after both enjoyed their best weeks of the year.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 96.7 points, or 0.24 per cent, to 40,659.76, capping a weekly gain of 2.94 per cent.

The S&P 500 gained 11.03 points, or 0.20 per cent, at 5,554.25 and the Nasdaq Composite added 37.22 points, or 0.21 per cent, at 17,631.72.

Australian share futures fell 14 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 7898.

On Friday, the local bourse finished up 105.6 points, or 1.34 per cent, to 7,971.1, while the broader All Ordinaries gained 106.1 points, or 1.31 per cent, to 8,189.9.

The ASX200's 2.49 per cent rise for the week was its best weekly performance since mid-December.

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store