The Victorian Labor government is facing a political crossroads.
Almost a decade since winning office, political analysts wonder if the state government must shed its skin to win an historic fourth term or whether it can coast off past achievements and electoral supremacy.
Labor will find it difficult convincing Victorians it is a fresh government in 2026 purely because of how long it's been at the helm, political scientist Zareh Ghazarian says.
"It will be 12 years old by the time the next election is due and there will be an 'it's time' factor that the government will really have to combat," the Monash University senior lecturer told AAP.
Queensland Labor experienced the wrath of change-hungry voters in October, relinquishing its grip on power to the Liberal Nationals after almost 10 years.
But RedBridge director Kos Samaras, who served as Victorian Labor's deputy campaign director from 2005 to 2019, suggested that result wasn't a perfect analogue.
The leading pollster pointed out roughly 80 per cent of Victorian residents live in Melbourne, compared to Brisbane accounting for about 50 per cent of Queensland's population, and emphasised the Victorian capital's "rapidly changing" political landscape.
"The two states are vastly different," he said.
"Back in 2014 only around 26 per cent of the (Victorian) voters' roll was made up of Millennials and Gen Z were too young - it's now closer to 50 per cent if you combine Gen Z and Millennials.
"This group of Victorians and particularly Melburnians are not really good hunting ground for the coalition and I'm yet to see any evidence that they are eating into that group, even with Labor's primary vote being so low."
Nonetheless, Mr Samaras conceded Premier Jacinta Allan must reshape herself and her government after the economic shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation crisis.
"She has to be drastically different to Daniel Andrews," he said.
"What worked for him between 2014 and 2022, won't work for her."
Mr Samaras, who is married to state Labor minister Ros Spence, and Dr Ghazarian both said Ms Allan had taken the "first steps" to differentiating herself with a recent blitz of housing policies.
However, history won't be on her side when Labor heads to the polls in two years.
The party has never won four successive Victorian state elections and will have been in power for 23 of the past 27 years.
No Victorian premier who replaced their elected leader during a term has steered a party to victory at the ballot box since Rupert Hamer succeeded Liberal icon Henry Bolte in 1972.
"The reason Rupert Hamer succeeded was he projected himself as drastically different to Bolte," Mr Samaras said.
"Rupert Hamer is the roadmap."
The practical effects of Victoria's strained finances and rising net debt, forecast to hit $187.8 billion by mid-2028, are starting to pile up.
Hospitals were told to tighten their belts before being handed a $1.5 billion one-year funding lifeline in August and the government has found itself fighting bitter pay battles with unions.
It managed to end protracted negotiations with nurses and paramedics, but disputes with Victoria Police and Fire Rescue Victoria workers have landed in the Fair Work Commission.
"These things take the shine off the government," Dr Ghazarian said.
One of Labor's biggest "failures" over the past 10 years has been ignoring its traditional support base of lower-income workers, Mr Samaras added.
"They're going to pay a price for it," he said.
"The price they're going to pay for it isn't just one election, it's going to be multi-generational.
"They're going to lose a lot of seats - I don't think they'll lose enough to lose government."
Any blow will be softened by the substantial electoral cushion left by Mr Andrews, who led Labor to 56 of 88 lower house seats in 2022.
It means the coalition must pick up at least 17 extra seats in 2026 to form a majority government, and Mr Samaras noted the opposition would likely need a 53 to 54 per cent two-party preferred result to end Labor's reign.
As Opposition Leader John Pesutto awaits the outcome of a defamation trial brought by ousted MP Moira Deeming, Dr Ghazarian acknowledged much of Labor's fortunes could rest on the Liberals.
"If they are able to appear to be a coherent group with a clear leader and free from internal bickering, then they may have a chance of a strong showing," he said.
