The lack of federal ambition on reducing greenhouse gas emissions will bring longer heatwaves, more intense bushfires and worse flooding for Australians, conservationists warn.
Australia may be on track to meet its 2030 climate commitment but that legislated target remains "far too weak," Australian Conservation Foundation spokeswoman Annika Reynolds said on Wednesday.
With the 43 per cent emissions reduction target already contributing to more than two degrees of global warming, she said the approval of 27 new or extended coal and gas projects since taking power meant the Albanese government had a "climate credibility gap".
A federal climate advisory body has said Australia must cut emissions by an "achievable" 75 per cent in the next decade to help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.
Yet the Narrabri underground coal mine, Mount Pleasant coal mine and Ashton coal mine signed off this year would generate more than a billion tonnes of climate-heating emissions over the life of the projects, Ms Reynolds warned.
Meanwhile Australia is almost on track to hit its 2030 emissions reduction target, with an overhauled electricity sector doing the heavy lifting, according to the annual climate statement to be released on Thursday.
The nation's emissions are projected to be down 42.6 per cent by 2030 under existing government policies, which is a smidgen shy of the legislated target of 43 per cent but better than the 37 per cent projected a year ago.
Also signalling an improving trajectory on harmful pollution, total net emissions are projected to be three per cent below the nation's 10-year carbon budget.
Australia's latest figures include the impact of a new vehicle efficiency standard for cheaper-to-run cars, progress towards the 82 per cent renewable energy target, and a revamped safeguard mechanism to control industrial emissions.
Climate Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie, said significant progress on climate action has been made in the past two years, including the four million milestone for rooftop solar installations achieved in November.
"After a decade of inaction, Australia has strong momentum with Australians benefiting from renewables jobs and opportunities opening up in the regions," she said.
The 2024 projections provide the latest estimates of future emissions, calculated using the Paris Agreement's agreed rules on climate accounting.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen insisted that Australia’s 43 per cent target was "ambitious but achievable".
But the coalition has slammed the 2030 target and plans to dump it if elected in 2025, as the latest polling indicates.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has flagged more gas generation and extensions for coal-fired power plants to keep the lights on, as well as longer-term plans to add nuclear power to the energy mix for a lower carbon electricity grid.
But with Australia's next national contribution to a global goal due to the United Nations within months, both major parties are on a deadline to commit to a 2035 target.
Mr Bowen said the advice on a 2035 target would include the impact of a Trump administration as well as world decarbonisation plans, because Australia was integral to world energy markets.
