Australia could cash in on the enormous export opportunity created by clean energy shortfalls in countries including China and India as the world moves to net zero, research suggests.
The 2050 net zero emissions pledge presents Australia with the "immense opportunity" to meet higher-than-expected clean energy demand in economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, India and Germany, analysis by climate think tank the Superpower Institute has found.
The data will be revealed at Parliament House on Monday, suggesting the shortfalls could net Australia as much as $693 billion in potential export revenue, or $987 billion at forecast 2060 levels of output.
The figure is six to eight times larger than typical revenues from Australian fossil fuel exports, researchers said.
Taking into account green technologies to get to net zero and other factors affecting demand in energy growth, the New Energy Trade report provides detailed estimates of the supply and demand for green electricity in the five key countries.
Given the countries' net zero commitments and need to import energy-intensive goods, researchers say Australia’s superpower export opportunity is clear.
All five are also on track for large shortfalls in clean electricity supply, equal to between 37 and 66 per cent of future demand by mid-century.
Options for closing the gap themselves are internationally uncompetitive and present Australia with the opportunity to export energy-intensive commodities such as iron, aluminium, urea, transport fuel and polysilicon.
Superpower Institute chair Professor Rod Sims said Australia was not far away from being able to produce energy-intensive commodities such as green iron or aluminium at large export scale if government were to support the innovation and production over the next three years.
"This is not a theoretical idea," the former competition regulator chair told AAP.
"The technology is known and proven.
“The zero-carbon energy gap that China, India, Japan, South Korea and Germany face creates an unparalleled role for Australia - with our abundant, low-cost renewable resources - to step in as a leading exporter of energy-intensive goods such as green iron, aluminium, urea and clean transport fuels.
“Australia could contribute up to 10 per cent of the world's emissions reductions by replacing the most carbon-intensive industrial processes in countries with limited renewable energy potential," Prof Sims said.
Report author Dr Reuben Finighan said previous analysis had overestimated the capacity of most countries to meet their needs through renewable energy and other zero-carbon sources such as nuclear.
"For the first time, this analysis demonstrates unequivocally that there will be significant shortfalls and this is an immense opportunity for Australia," he said.
For Institute director Professor Ross Garnaut, the findings present Australia with the opportunity to lead the world in new energy trade through exports of energy embodied in green commodities.
“This is an extraordinary economic opportunity for our nation to replace fossil exports with larger renewable-driven industries, creating economic growth and jobs across regional Australia," he said.
